Bitcoin STH Cost Basis Nears $74,900 Decision Gate



 Bitcoin is climbing again, and while the price move is getting attention, the more important story is happening on-chain. Analysts tracking short-term holder behavior are pointing to a specific level that could define BTC's next few weeks.

The number is $74,900.

That is the average acquisition price for Bitcoin holders who entered the market between one and three months ago, a cohort that has been sitting on losses since October 2025. For most of that period, the market did not give them a clean break-even exit. There was one window in January 2025. Other than that, nothing.

Now the price is testing that level again.

On-chain analyst Darkfost flagged on X that Bitcoin has already cleared the cost basis of the most price-sensitive short-term holders, those who bought between one week and one month ago, at roughly $69,400. That clearance has helped stabilize sentiment for recent buyers. But the bigger wall sits just above.

What makes this moment different from other cost basis discussions is the structure underneath it. Most coverage treats short-term holder realized price as a single metric. The reality is a three-tier ladder. The 1-week-to-1-month cohort sits at $69,400, now cleared. The 1-month-to-3-month cohort is at $74,900, currently being tested. Above that, the 3-month-to-6-month cohort holds an average entry near $92,000.

Each of these groups has a different profile and a different exit calculation. The middle cohort, the one at $74,900, is arguably the most important to watch right now. They have been underwater the longest among active short-term holders, and this is only their second real shot at breaking even.

At the same time, CryptoQuant analyst _onchain published a detailed breakdown showing that demand contracted well before price followed during the correction that started from $126,000. The SMA50 on the weekly chart had already lost slope by the time BTC hit $94,000 in November. That context matters when reading the current recovery.

Whether the $74,900 test holds or breaks will say a lot about whether Bitcoin can push toward $92,000 and beyond.

CryptoNewsLive.org has the full breakdown of the on-chain data behind this move, including what each STH cohort is signaling and why the demand data from CryptoQuant changes how you read the current price action. Visit CryptoNewsLive.org for the complete analysis.

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