XRP Could Hit $0.70-$0.90 Before Recovery, Analyst Says — Here's Why


 Most XRP analysis right now focuses on whether price holds above $1.40 or breaks toward $1.80. That is the short-term picture. The two-week chart is telling a longer story.

ChartNerdTA, a technical analyst on X, published a detailed breakdown of XRP's macro structure this week using 13 years of Gaussian channel data. The finding is straightforward: in every single XRP bear market across three full cycles, price has come back down to the lower band of the two-week Gaussian channel before any real recovery began. That lower band currently sits near $0.96.

This cycle has not touched it. The bearish trend flip on the two-week Gaussian has not appeared yet either. In 2019 and 2022, that trend flip marked the actual cycle low. Without it, ChartNerdTA's read is that the bear market structure is still intact.

His base case puts the cycle low forming between $0.70 and $0.90 in 2026. That range aligns with the multi-year symmetrical triangle floor already identified by independent chart analysis, which you can read about in detail at CryptoNewsLive.org.

Beyond the Gaussian channel, ChartNerdTA identified three converging structures on the two-week chart pointing at the same zone: a six-year ascending support trendline, a descending resistance line not retested since late 2024, and a falling wedge. All three meet at the same area.

He also addressed the common assumption that a 69% correction means the bottom is near. Prior XRP bear markets ran 96% and 85% from peak. A proportionally smaller drawdown this cycle, around 76%, still puts the potential low near $0.84. A relief rally to $1.80 or $2 would not change the structure. It would still be a lower high inside a downtrend.

The levels that matter are $1.80 and $2.40. XRP needs to reclaim both and hold them before the trend reversal is real.

After the cycle low forms, ChartNerdTA's Fibonacci targets run $8, $13, and $27 in sequence. But those belong to the next cycle, not this one.

For the full technical breakdown of both the Gaussian channel signal and the triangle setup behind the $0.90 floor, visit CryptoNewsLive.org.

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