Bitcoin Is Testing a Critical On-Chain Level — Here's What It Means

 


Bitcoin just printed its third consecutive all-time high. But on-chain, the numbers behind those highs keep telling a different story.

The Short-Term Holder MVRV, a metric tracked by CryptoQuant that measures whether recent buyers are sitting in profit or loss, has made a lower peak every time Bitcoin has set a new record. March 2024 at $72K. November 2024 at $106K. July 2025 at $120K. Three highs. Three lower MVRV readings.

That divergence has formed a descending trendline that has now held for well over a year. CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV flagged that Bitcoin is currently compressing back toward that exact trendline, and this is what he calls the most consequential test of the pattern so far.

What happens next depends on two things. First, whether Bitcoin can reclaim the STH Realized Price, which is the average cost basis of everyone who bought in the last 155 days. Second, whether the MVRV can hold and trend above 1.0 from there. Both need to happen together. One without the other isn't enough.

If that confirmation comes in, MorenoDV's analysis suggests it would mark a structural regime change. Short-term holders would flip from net loss to net profit, removing the overhead selling pressure that has capped previous rallies. That's not a small thing. It changes the supply dynamic at the top of the range.

If the trendline holds again, the ceiling extends. Bitcoin would face the same structural headwind it has faced at every ATH since early 2024.

This is the exact kind of on-chain setup that doesn't get much attention until after it resolves. Most price coverage focuses on levels and headlines. The MVRV data is showing something more specific: the degree to which conviction among recent buyers is actually declining even as price rises.

For the full breakdown of Bitcoin's market structure test, including the chart and MorenoDV's analysis, head over to CryptoNewsLive.org.

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